Behavior Gap Newsletter Behavior Gap Sketches

A Fool's Predictions

by Carl on March 11, 2009

bookcovers

I’m reminded of a story I heard about a stock market forecaster making a living selling a newsletter that predicted the direction of the market. He started with a list of 640,000 people. To half the list, he sent a prediction that the market would go up that month, and to the other half, he predicted the market would go down.

The next month, he continued sending his free newsletter to the half that read his correct prediction. Once again, he divided his subscriber list, predicting an up market to half and a down market to half. After six months, 10,000 people had received newsletters where this market forecaster correctly predicted the market six months in a row.

He then offered an annual subscription for only $149.99 per year.

Please remember, when you are trying to find a guru to help you predict the market that even a broken clock is right twice a day. There are good reasons to buy, and there are also good reasons to sell. But they are based on your PLAN and not on some fool’s prediction.

Note: Thanks to Nobody’s Business for the book cover idea.

{ 11 comments }

Richard Reyes March 11, 2009 at 8:42 am

Wow, too funny. When will people understand that “Free Markets Work”. Markets are efficient. People have problems, markets don't have problems.

RIchard E. Reyes, CFP
Investor Coach
http://www.thefinancialqb.com

Matt_SF March 11, 2009 at 9:43 am

People who read books like these probably haven't heard of the internet… if they had, they would realize each book review says the same thing. Doom. Gloom. Buy an UltraShort ETF.

Matt_SF March 11, 2009 at 11:43 am

People who read books like these probably haven't heard of the internet… if they had, they would realize each book review says the same thing. Doom. Gloom. Buy an UltraShort ETF.

Adam Gordon March 12, 2009 at 4:26 am

I know that story and agree 100% with your post. To those books and many like them, I have offered the alka-seltzer: a book that shows forecast consumers how to assess and discern quality in the future thinking they read and hear. It views expert foresight as a crucial resource, but puts sharp tools in the hands of forecast users. It is designed to be the business or policy manager's core reference in weighing up (aka rubbishing) what the media, consultants, investment brokers, industry analysts and other gurus and talking heads are saying about the future.” -Adam Gordon, Author “Future Savvy” American Management Association Press, 2009 twitter: @futuresavvy

Adam Gordon March 12, 2009 at 6:26 am

I know that story and agree 100% with your post. To those books and many like them, I have offered the alka-seltzer: a book that shows forecast consumers how to assess and discern quality in the future thinking they read and hear. It views expert foresight as a crucial resource, but puts sharp tools in the hands of forecast users. It is designed to be the business or policy manager's core reference in weighing up (aka rubbishing) what the media, consultants, investment brokers, industry analysts and other gurus and talking heads are saying about the future.” -Adam Gordon, Author “Future Savvy” American Management Association Press, 2009 twitter: @futuresavvy

Neal Frankle March 12, 2009 at 10:17 pm

Right on Carl. Remember Harry Dent? He predicted the market would hit 36000 – I think that was in 1999. Fast forward 10 years. His latest book predicts the market will crash and burn. It would be funny if it wasn't pathetic.

Neal Frankle March 13, 2009 at 12:17 am

Right on Carl. Remember Harry Dent? He predicted the market would hit 36000 – I think that was in 1999. Fast forward 10 years. His latest book predicts the market will crash and burn. It would be funny if it wasn't pathetic.

Kent @ Financial Philosopher March 13, 2009 at 5:18 am

Great points, Carl…

“Fear always springs from ignorance.” ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.” ~ Lau Tzu

Kent @ Financial Philosopher March 13, 2009 at 7:18 am

Great points, Carl…

“Fear always springs from ignorance.” ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge.” ~ Lau Tzu

Dividend Growth Investor June 26, 2009 at 10:54 am

Now that sounds like the perfect get rich quick scheme there. The main problem of course is finding 640,000 subscribers..

Dividend Growth Investor June 26, 2009 at 5:54 pm

Now that sounds like the perfect get rich quick scheme there. The main problem of course is finding 640,000 subscribers..

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