Comments on: Forecasting is a Waste of Time http://www.behaviorgap.com/forecasting-is-a-waste-of-time/ Exploring the relationship between people and their money. Fri, 16 Jul 2010 16:53:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Clifford http://www.behaviorgap.com/forecasting-is-a-waste-of-time/comment-page-1/#comment-33 Clifford Thu, 12 Feb 2009 19:15:09 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=701#comment-33 Hi Carl, people are always pointing out, that if you miss the 10 best days, two-thirds of the cumulative gains produced by the Dow over the past 109 years would disappear. But its the next sentence that is important! Conversely, had you sidestepped the market's 10 worst days, you would have tripled the actual return of the Dow. Now the question in my mind is what is the best way to do that. Note you don't have to be 100% accurate, If you miss half of the bad days you should make about 150% of the dow's return. Something to shoot for. Hi Carl, people are always pointing out, that if you miss the 10 best days, two-thirds of the cumulative gains produced by the Dow over the past 109 years would disappear.

But its the next sentence that is important!
Conversely, had you sidestepped the market’s 10 worst days, you would have tripled the actual return of the Dow. Now the question in my mind is what is the best way to do that. Note you don’t have to be 100% accurate, If you miss half of the bad days you should make about 150% of the dow’s return. Something to shoot for.

]]> By: Ken http://www.behaviorgap.com/forecasting-is-a-waste-of-time/comment-page-1/#comment-34 Ken Wed, 11 Feb 2009 15:01:25 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=701#comment-34 Sage advice...stay the course and don't miss those big days...they make a BIG difference. Sage advice…stay the course and don’t miss those big days…they make a BIG difference.

]]> By: Carl http://www.behaviorgap.com/forecasting-is-a-waste-of-time/comment-page-1/#comment-35 Carl Sun, 08 Feb 2009 04:04:53 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=701#comment-35 @Sylvia- The average temperature comparison is great! @Sylvia- The average temperature comparison is great!

]]> By: Sylvia http://www.behaviorgap.com/forecasting-is-a-waste-of-time/comment-page-1/#comment-32 Sylvia Sat, 07 Feb 2009 17:17:17 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=701#comment-32 Great article. Sometimes you need someone to point out the obvious to you to get an "A-ha!" moment. As I was reading your slideshow, I thought that a good comparison would be to consider what would you pack for vacation if the only climate information you had was that the "Average Annual Temperature" of your destination was 60 degrees. Great article. Sometimes you need someone to point out the obvious to you to get an “A-ha!” moment.

As I was reading your slideshow, I thought that a good comparison would be to consider what would you pack for vacation if the only climate information you had was that the “Average Annual Temperature” of your destination was 60 degrees.

]]> By: Russ http://www.behaviorgap.com/forecasting-is-a-waste-of-time/comment-page-1/#comment-36 Russ Wed, 28 Jan 2009 23:16:50 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=701#comment-36 Carl, Great post. Once again, you've done a great job of cutting to the core of this issue. I posted something on this same article recently, too. Can't believe Zweig denounces forecasts and then is all too willing to share his own forecast. Oh well, like you said, the other 95% of the article is well worth the read. Carl,
Great post. Once again, you’ve done a great job of cutting to the core of this issue. I posted something on this same article recently, too. Can’t believe Zweig denounces forecasts and then is all too willing to share his own forecast. Oh well, like you said, the other 95% of the article is well worth the read.

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