Comments on: Getting In and Getting Out—The Issue with Market Timing http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/ Exploring the relationship between people and their money. Fri, 16 Jul 2010 16:53:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: MarkWolfinger http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-981 MarkWolfinger Fri, 26 Jun 2009 04:15:29 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-981 OK<br><br>And it's just the definition of a loss. So it's not important to most people. OK

And it's just the definition of a loss. So it's not important to most people.

]]> By: Carl Richards http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-980 Carl Richards Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:55:24 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-980 Dylan-<br>Thanks to you as well. I always enjoy your comment here and on GRS. You<br>really add a lot to the community.<br><br>I loved the painting example. Dylan-
Thanks to you as well. I always enjoy your comment here and on GRS. You
really add a lot to the community.

I loved the painting example.

]]> By: Dylan http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-979 Dylan Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:39:07 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-979 I'm an occasional commenter here and on other similar blogs, and my position was accurately reflected in majasan's comment.<br><br>You've made it clear you think the painting as a terrible example, and that's fine. But I think you're missing the forest for the trees. I'm content agreeing to disagree. I'm an occasional commenter here and on other similar blogs, and my position was accurately reflected in majasan's comment.

You've made it clear you think the painting as a terrible example, and that's fine. But I think you're missing the forest for the trees. I'm content agreeing to disagree.

]]> By: Carl Richards http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-983 Carl Richards Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:15:24 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-983 Mark- thanks for pushing the discussion. It makes us all better. I <br>think we all need to remember that modern portfolio theory is a <br>theory, based on only 82 years of data, these are NOT laws of physics! Mark- thanks for pushing the discussion. It makes us all better. I
think we all need to remember that modern portfolio theory is a
theory, based on only 82 years of data, these are NOT laws of physics!

]]> By: MarkWolfinger http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-982 MarkWolfinger Fri, 26 Jun 2009 01:45:54 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-982 Conventional wisdom is an oxymoron. It's just regurgitation of old ideas because people are too lazy. or unwilling, to learn anything new. Conventional wisdom is an oxymoron. It's just regurgitation of old ideas because people are too lazy. or unwilling, to learn anything new.

]]> By: MarkWolfinger http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-978 MarkWolfinger Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:33:35 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-978 I don't trade individual stocks either.<br><br>"With time on our side the equity portion should appreciate or break even.'<br><br>This is far off the original of discussion (is it a loss?), but here's my question: Is that good enough? It SHOULD appreciate - just because it always has in the past? That's not good enough for me. I need to know it will not collapse in my face. I need to know my money is available when I need it - not when the market decides to return it to me. My idea (as Carl already knows) is to protect my assets - regardless of whether the investing style is active or passive. Protect assets with option collars. Prevent the big downside, and in return, sacrifice the big upside.<br><br>When you use the term 'break-even, do you mean return to it's original beak-even point, or break-even from this point forward?<br><br>I am not being critical of anyone or any investing ideas. I'm joining the conversation.<br><br><br><br>Is Dylan a regular contributor or regular commenter? I ask because you lumped him with Carl and yourself. The painting was a terrible example, and in my opinion demonstrates why he just doesn't get it. And he thinks I don't get it. there's nothing more to discuss unless you want to offer an opinion. I don't trade individual stocks either.

“With time on our side the equity portion should appreciate or break even.'

This is far off the original of discussion (is it a loss?), but here's my question: Is that good enough? It SHOULD appreciate – just because it always has in the past? That's not good enough for me. I need to know it will not collapse in my face. I need to know my money is available when I need it – not when the market decides to return it to me. My idea (as Carl already knows) is to protect my assets – regardless of whether the investing style is active or passive. Protect assets with option collars. Prevent the big downside, and in return, sacrifice the big upside.

When you use the term 'break-even, do you mean return to it's original beak-even point, or break-even from this point forward?

I am not being critical of anyone or any investing ideas. I'm joining the conversation.

Is Dylan a regular contributor or regular commenter? I ask because you lumped him with Carl and yourself. The painting was a terrible example, and in my opinion demonstrates why he just doesn't get it. And he thinks I don't get it. there's nothing more to discuss unless you want to offer an opinion.

]]> By: majasan http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-977 majasan Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:21:00 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-977 Painting is one of a kind.Agreed. Dylan used painting to demonstrate his point.<br>Carl,Dylan, I and others who follow this blog are not into individual stocks. We believe we do occassionally pick performers but can never do that consistently. So we trust the indexes will do the job for us. Albeit, in the long run.<br><br>Your point about selling the garbage "they own now and buy a different stock that is likely to perform better - from today - they can earn the lost money more quickly" - is questionable. Wouldn't those same people repeat the same mistake that they did in the first place.<br><br>The value depreciation of equities is an acceptable for us. That is why we have two great helpers, Re-balancing and Age=Bond/cash/CD allocation. With time on our side the equity portion should appreciate or break even.<br><br>Thanks Mark for bringing in your perspective. It only re-inforced my beliefs. Painting is one of a kind.Agreed. Dylan used painting to demonstrate his point.
Carl,Dylan, I and others who follow this blog are not into individual stocks. We believe we do occassionally pick performers but can never do that consistently. So we trust the indexes will do the job for us. Albeit, in the long run.

Your point about selling the garbage “they own now and buy a different stock that is likely to perform better – from today – they can earn the lost money more quickly” – is questionable. Wouldn't those same people repeat the same mistake that they did in the first place.

The value depreciation of equities is an acceptable for us. That is why we have two great helpers, Re-balancing and Age=Bond/cash/CD allocation. With time on our side the equity portion should appreciate or break even.

Thanks Mark for bringing in your perspective. It only re-inforced my beliefs.

]]> By: MarkWolfinger http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-502 MarkWolfinger Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:15:29 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-502 OK<br><br>And it's just the definition of a loss. So it's not important to most people. OK

And it's just the definition of a loss. So it's not important to most people.

]]> By: thinkingcarl http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-501 thinkingcarl Thu, 25 Jun 2009 20:55:24 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-501 Dylan-<br>Thanks to you as well. I always enjoy your comment here and on GRS. You<br>really add a lot to the community.<br><br>I loved the painting example. Dylan-
Thanks to you as well. I always enjoy your comment here and on GRS. You
really add a lot to the community.

I loved the painting example.

]]> By: Dylan http://www.behaviorgap.com/getting-in-and-getting-out-the-issue-with-market-timing/comment-page-1/#comment-500 Dylan Thu, 25 Jun 2009 20:39:07 +0000 http://www.behaviorgap.com/?p=1155#comment-500 I'm an occasional commenter here and on other similar blogs, and my position was accurately reflected in majasan's comment.<br><br>You've made it clear you think the painting as a terrible example, and that's fine. But I think you're missing the forest for the trees. I'm content agreeing to disagree. I'm an occasional commenter here and on other similar blogs, and my position was accurately reflected in majasan's comment.

You've made it clear you think the painting as a terrible example, and that's fine. But I think you're missing the forest for the trees. I'm content agreeing to disagree.

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