It has been said that the last four words of any great investor are:
“This time it’s different.”
The argument that this time REALLY is different seems to be louder than any time that I can remember. After all we have never seen a time like this, EVER!
But there is difference between the cause and the outcome.
Yes, the cause of this current scary market is different. One of the things that make scary markets so scary is they all start for different reasons. No bear market is just like another. In light of that, it is a waste of time trying to compare one bear market to another except to recognize that just like the last 20, this bear market will end.
What has never been different is the fact that all scary markets have ended. They have all turned out to be temporary declines in the face of the permanent advance that is part of the core of capitalism.
Assuming that somehow the ENDING of the current scary market is going to be different is simply illogical. It might feel right to sell (see “Manual for Scary Markets“), but it is not logical.
Given the weighty evidence of history, the only logical assumption is that this market will end just like every other scary market in history. And when it does, the only way to participate will be to already be there.
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