What It Means to Predict a Crisis
If you play Russian Roulette with 1 bullet and 100 chambers in your pistol, I can’t predict when the crisis will occur. If you play with 10 bullets, I still can’t predict when the crisis will occur but I can say with certainty that the risk has increased [...]
By Carl on 09.25.09 > Link
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Behavior Gap Radio
The [...]
By Carl on 06.12.09 > Link
“Welcome to an era of diminished expectations and continuing dangers; a world where policymakers must steer between the imminent threat of deflation while countering investors’ (reasonable) fears that swelling public debts and massive monetary easing could eventually lead to high inflation; an uncharted world where government borrowing reaches a scale not seen since the second [...]
By Carl on 04.27.09 > Link