Why Didn’t We Know?

In what is turning out to be one of the worst years for the markets in a long time it is tempting to question ourselves and ask “How come no one told me?”.

Now you have the “market strategists” coming down from the mountain tops saying that they predicted this market decline. Please remember that even a broken clock is right twice a day!

The reality is that there is ZERO evidence (after countless studies) that anyone can predict the short term direction of the market consistently ENOUGH to make more than just staying in. In fact, according to Bloomberg at the start of 2008 the consensus view of people who get paid a lot of money to get this right was that  the S&P 500 would end 2008 at 1632. Today we are around 850!

If you are going to GAMBLE your family’s future on some self-proclaimed expert, PLEASE remember that at this point you don’t care who “called” this market downturn, what you are betting on is your ability to find the person that will call the NEXT ONE!

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